Tackling delimitation by reversing population control

/ Editorials, English /

Tackling delimitation by reversing population control

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 6)

Topic – GS 1: Population and associated issues , GS 2: Issues and challenges pertaining to the federal structure

Context

  • Oversimplification: Politicians in southern states often propose solutions that are too simplistic for complex issues.
  • Emotional Appeal: These solutions tend to focus on immediate concerns, appealing to voters’ emotions rather than addressing root causes.
  • Lack of Nuance: Quick fixes in areas like education, healthcare, or economic inequality often overlook specific community needs and expert consultation.
  • Polarization: Simplistic approaches can hinder constructive dialogue and make it harder to reach consensus on effective, multifaceted solutions.
  • Need for Depth: Real problem-solving requires a deep understanding of issues, collaboration among stakeholders, and a readiness to engage with complexities.

Introduction

  • Recently, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin voiced concerns about the proposed delimitation exercise.
  • This exercise could lead to a loss of parliamentary seats for southern states, which are experiencing lower fertility rates compared to northern states.
  • Many people, beyond just politicians, are frustrated that effective family planning might reduce the political representation of less populated southern states.
  • Naidu’s Proposal: Naidu suggested that Andhra Pradesh may enact a law allowing only those with more than two children to contest local elections, reversing a previous law that limited candidates to two children. He hinted at providing incentives for larger families.
  • Stalin’s Response: In a lighthearted remark, Stalin questioned why they should limit family size amid decreasing Lok Sabha constituencies, jokingly suggesting aiming for “16 children.”

The Fertility Decline Debate

  • The key question arises: Can declining fertility rates be halted or reversed?
  • Achieving low fertility rates is challenging to reverse, though minor natural reversals can sometimes occur.
  • Some countries have attempted to boost fertility through incentives, but these efforts have often been unsuccessful.

Clarifying China’s One-Child Policy

  • Consequences: China’s strict one-child policy has led to various issues:
  • Marriage Market Issues: A skewed gender ratio has created difficulties in the marriage market.
  • Dependency Burden: An aging population imposes a heavier burden on the younger generation.
  • Extremely Low Fertility: The country is now struggling with an unsustainably low fertility rate.

Regulatory Measures and Population Control

  • Enforced measures to limit reproduction have not produced lasting benefits.
  • Focusing only on population numbers without considering demographic composition can result in unintended consequences.
  • China’s experience illustrates the crises resulting from forced demographic changes and social security burdens.

Imbalanced Population Composition

  • Intervening in natural population dynamics can lead to imbalance, only potentially fixed through migration.
  • Countries like Japan and South Korea have not seen success with pro-natal policies, highlighting the complexity of incentivizing higher birth rates.
  • The southern states’ concerns about political disadvantages appear to be reactive rather than grounded in long-term effectiveness.

Varied Population Counts

  • Fertility decline is becoming more uniform across India, but significant regional differences remain.
  • Using population counts as the sole criterion for political representation risks undermining the federal structure of India.
  • While “one person, one vote” is an ideal principle, it could lead to disproportionate representation in more populated areas.
  • Need for Broader Criteria: Fair representation should consider factors beyond population numbers, especially in regions that have successfully managed population growth.
  • Recognizing the demographic divide—including education levels and family sizes—is crucial for shaping fair political outcomes.

Impact on Women

  • Encouraging women to have more children is often easier said than done.
  • Currently, the personal sacrifices for women engaged in child-rearing are significant and not adequately addressed by state policies.
  • While the state celebrates lower fertility rates, the real impact on women’s lives has been neglected.
  • For successful fertility reversal, states must provide social support for families and compensation for women’s reproductive roles.

Conclusion

  • While reversing fertility rates may seem appealing for sustainable population levels, addressing regional population imbalances could be better managed through migration in the short term.
  • The critical issue is how lower population counts affect political representation, which could be solved by ensuring broader evaluations of capability rather than solely relying on population numbers.
  • Ultimately, the solution may lie not in reversing fertility rates, but in rethinking political representation in the context of delimitation exercises.