The rebounding of Pakistan’s Afghan strategy

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 6)

Topic: GS 2: India and its neighborhood- relations

Context

• Taliban’s Return: The resurgence of the Taliban has significantly affected regional dynamics.
• Security Concerns: Afghanistan is viewed as a “strategic ditch” by Pakistan’s security establishment.
• Impact on Pakistan: This situation poses challenges for Pakistan’s national security and counterterrorism efforts.
• Regional Stability: The ongoing instability in Afghanistan can spill over into Pakistan, exacerbating existing tensions.

Introduction

• Casualties in Counter-Terrorism: On December 27, 2024, Pakistan’s ISPR reported 383 security personnel deaths in counter-terrorism operations and the elimination of 925 terrorists, including TTP members, in 60,000 operations.
• Pakistan’s Stance: While highlighting Pakistan’s generosity towards Afghanistan, officials emphasized that the country would not tolerate TTP attacks, despite the group’s alleged safe haven in Afghanistan.
• Irony of Support: Pakistan has historically supported the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network, complicating its current stance.

Diplomatic Efforts and Failures

• Visit to Kabul: Pakistan’s special representative for Afghanistan, Muhammad Sadiq Khan, visited Kabul in December 2024 to ease tensions.
• Failed Diplomacy: His visit coincided with airstrikes by the Pakistan Air Force against TTP targets in Afghanistan, leading to claims of 46 casualties and escalating tensions.

Dangerous Stalemate

• Retaliatory Claims: Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defence claimed attacks on Pakistan in retaliation for airstrikes, omitting the context of targeting Pakistani territory.
• Limits of Influence: These events reveal Pakistan’s diminishing ability to control its former proxies through coercion or diplomacy.

Strategic Missteps

• Shift from Depth to Ditch: Pakistan’s Afghan strategy has backfired, transforming Afghanistan from a strategic depth to a strategic ditch, deepening its security crisis.
• Escalating Violence: Ongoing tit-for-tat violence has worsened relations between the two nations.

Challenges from the TTP

• Ideological Links: The TTP and Afghan Taliban share ideological ties, complicating Pakistan’s security landscape.
• Public Pressure: There is increasing public demand for decisive action against the TTP.
• Seeking U.S. Help: Some Pakistani officials have controversially sought U.S. assistance to target militants.

Controversial Measures

• U.S. Drone Bases Proposal: Following a deadly attack, a Pakistani minister suggested offering U.S. drone bases for operations against militants, later retracting the statement.
• General’s Remarks: Army Chief General Asim Munir’s harsh statements about Afghanistan contrasted with later conciliatory appeals to Afghan leaders.

Historical Oversight

• Misjudgment of Dynamics: Pakistan’s leadership has overlooked Afghanistan’s complex political landscape, leading to strategic miscalculations.
• Overextension Post-9/11: Instead of disengaging after 9/11, Pakistan deepened its involvement, misjudging the Taliban-TTP relationship.

Self-Created Terrorism Issue

• Own Making: Pakistan’s terrorism challenges stem from its own policies, particularly its Afghan strategy and focus on India.
• Support for Extremists: Continued support for extremist groups has backfired, fueling terrorism within Pakistan.

Misjudgment of the Taliban

• Taliban as a Tool: Pakistan viewed the Taliban as a strategic asset against India, misjudging their potential for instability.
• Misguided Celebrations: Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s praise for the Taliban’s return reflects a disconnect from reality.

Realpolitik and Confusion

• Shift to Realpolitik: Initial enthusiasm for the Taliban’s return has given way to harsh realities, causing confusion in Pakistan’s policy response.

Pushback on Territorial Issues

• Durand Line Rejection: Afghanistan has historically rejected the Durand Line as the legitimate border, complicating relations.
• Kabul’s Claims: Afghanistan continues to assert claims over Pakistani territories, exacerbating tensions.

Pashtunistan Issue

• Taliban’s Opposition: The Taliban’s rejection of border fencing has reignited demands for a greater Pashtunistan, uniting Pashtun territories across the border.
• Rising Nationalism: The Taliban’s actions have fueled Pashtun nationalism, posing challenges for Pakistan.

Islamabad’s Dilemma

• Heightened Stakes: The stakes for resolving the Pashtunistan issue are now higher due to the militant threat.
• Ongoing Border Tensions: Afghan border security personnel are likely to continue challenging Pakistan’s border controls.

Conclusion

• Reluctance to Recognize Taliban: Pakistan is hesitant to recognize the Taliban regime due to rising terrorism and the TTP’s challenge to its authority.
• Diminishing Options: The Afghan Taliban’s inaction against the TTP limits Pakistan’s ability to engage politically with Kabul.