The Hindu Editorial Analysis
15 October 2025
The Evolving Political Dynamics in Volatile Bangladesh
(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 8)
Topic : GS Paper II – International Relations | GS Paper II – Polity and Governance
Context
Bangladesh is witnessing a major political realignment ahead of its February 2026 general elections, with the emergence of new power centers and the weakening of traditional party structures. The country’s student movements, Islamist organizations, and technocratic leadership under Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus are reshaping the political arena — historically dominated by the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
This transformation raises questions about the stability of Bangladesh’s democracy, the role of the army, and India’s strategic calculus in the region.
1. Background: From Two-Party Dominance to Political Fluidity
a) The Traditional Bipolar Setup
Since independence, Bangladesh’s politics has revolved around two principal parties:
- Awami League (AL) – led by Sheikh Hasina, rooted in the 1971 liberation legacy, advocating secular nationalism.
- Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) – led by Khaleda Zia, espousing a nationalist-conservative agenda.
This two-party hegemony has often produced polarization, violence, and governance paralysis. However, with the BNP weakened and Awami League’s dominance fading amid governance fatigue, new actors have entered the field.
b) Rise of New Political Blocs
The Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and the newly formed National Citizen Party (NCP) are now leveraging the interim government setup to expand influence.
- The Jamaat, historically banned from electoral politics due to its role in the 1971 war, has strategically repositioned itself as a mainstream Islamist voice supporting the interim arrangement.
- The NCP, backed by student leaders and sections of civil society, is seeking a proportional representation model to replace the current first-past-the-post system, claiming it would ensure a “level playing field for all political actors.”
2. The Role of the Interim Government and Mohammed Yunus
a) Technocratic Legitimacy
Nobel laureate Dr. Mohammed Yunus, appointed Chief Adviser to the interim government, symbolizes a technocratic and reformist alternative amid political deadlock. His leadership offers a veneer of neutrality, but also faces accusations of being aligned with Western interests and student activism.
b) Political Balancing and Challenges
At the UNGA session (September 2025), Yunus appeared with Jamaat and NCP representatives, signaling a shift away from the AL–BNP duopoly.
However, Yunus’s coalition faces dual challenges:
- The BNP’s distrust of his proximity to the Jamaat and Western institutions.
- The Awami League’s hostility, which views him as undermining Sheikh Hasina’s political legitimacy.
3. The BNP and Awami League: Crisis of Leadership and Relevance
a) The BNP’s Decline
Once the main opposition force, the BNP’s leadership crisis persists. With Khaleda Zia’s exile and internal factionalism, it is losing mass appeal. Attempts to regain influence have failed amid:
- Uncertainty over election schedules, and
- Frustration among grassroots workers and urban supporters.
BNP’s Chairman Tarique Rahman, operating from London, continues to be a divisive figure, weakening the party’s coherence.
b) The Awami League’s Fatigue
After over a decade in power, the Awami League under Sheikh Hasina faces growing public discontent due to authoritarian tendencies, youth unemployment, and corruption allegations.
Her dependence on the military’s goodwill makes her vulnerable amid shifting civil-military equations.
4. The Military’s Strategic Posture
a) Controlled Neutrality
The Bangladesh Army has historically played a kingmaker’s role. Under Chief Gen. Waker-Uz-Zaman, the military appears to prefer a controlled transition rather than direct rule — signaling a willingness to influence rather than intervene.
b) Institutional Continuity
The International Crimes Tribunal (ICT), which prosecuted war crimes linked to the 1971 Liberation War, remains an instrument of political legitimacy for the Awami League. Yet, its moral authority has eroded over time.
In December 2024, the Zaman-led military successfully revised the Proclamation of Independence, embedding a role for national stability under military oversight — without overtly challenging democratic forms.
5. The Jamaat’s Strategic Comeback
a) Rebranding Islamist Politics
The Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), once marginalized for its war-era collaboration, is now rebranding itself through social media and student activism. It projects an image of moderate political Islam, aligning with youth and civic movements while maintaining ties with Islamist networks across Pakistan, Turkey, and the Middle East.
b) Coalition Building
Jamaat’s student wing, the Islami Chhatra Shibir, is coordinating with university-based student unions, historically aligned with the NCP. Together, they are mobilizing under the banner of “Islamic democracy and national unity,” offering a populist counterweight to secular-nationalist narratives.
6. The New Electoral Calculus: PR vs. Majoritarianism
a) Push for Proportional Representation (PR)
The NCP and Jamaat coalition argues that a PR system will dilute dynastic politics and ensure equitable representation.
For the BNP, supporting PR offers a route to remain politically relevant.
For the Awami League, PR threatens its traditional dominance under a first-past-the-post system.
b) Student and Youth Mobilization
Campus protests and youth-led social movements have become key political mobilizers. The decline of Hasina’s youth outreach programs, such as “Digital Bangladesh,” has left an ideological vacuum — now being filled by student organizations aligned with Yunus and Islamist groups.
7. Implications for India
a) Strategic Concerns
- A weak civilian government in Dhaka complicates India’s security calculus, especially regarding border management, Rohingya migration, and Islamist extremism.
- The return of Jamaat to mainstream politics could embolden radical networks with cross-border linkages.
b) Diplomatic Tightrope
India must balance:
- Its historical ties with the Awami League, and
- The pragmatic need to engage with emerging political actors like the NCP and Yunus administration.
Any overt support for Hasina could alienate future regimes and push Bangladesh closer to China or Turkey, both of which are expanding strategic influence in the Bay of Bengal region.
Conclusion
Bangladesh stands at a political crossroads, with its two-party dominance crumbling and new hybrid configurations taking shape. The rise of technocratic leadership, Islamist re-entry, and student mobilization signal both democratic flux and institutional fragility.
The 2026 elections will not merely decide political power but will redefine the nature of democracy in Bangladesh — whether it remains secular and pluralist or tilts toward religious populism and military-backed stability.
For India, the challenge lies in navigating this volatile transformation with strategic restraint and diplomatic foresight, ensuring that the Indo-Bangladesh partnership remains resilient amid changing political currents.