The Hindu Editorial Analysis
21 January 2026
The EV boom is accelerating a copper crunch
(Source – The Hindu, International Edition, Page no.-8 )
Topic: GS Paper – GS-3 : Energy Transition, Critical Minerals, Industrial Growth, Climate Change
Context
The global shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) is widely celebrated as a cornerstone of the green transition. However, beneath this optimism lies an underappreciated structural challenge — a rapidly emerging copper crunch. Copper is indispensable to electrification, forming the backbone of EV batteries, motors, wiring, charging infrastructure and power grids. As EV adoption accelerates exponentially, copper demand has surged at a pace that global supply systems are struggling to match. The editorial argues that the energy transition is increasingly constrained not by technology, but by critical mineral availability.
Core Issue
The central issue is whether the pace of EV-led electrification can be sustained amid a widening mismatch between copper demand and supply.
The EV transition must therefore be understood not only as a technological transformation, but as a resource-intensive shift shaped by geology, mining capacity, and supply-chain geopolitics.
Copper: The Hidden Backbone of EVs
Copper is irreplaceable in electrification due to its high conductivity and durability.
- EVs require four to five times more copper than internal combustion engine vehicles.
- Copper is critical across:
- Battery systems,
- Power electronics,
- Charging infrastructure,
- Transmission and distribution networks.
Over the past decade, EVs have moved from a niche product to the fastest-growing segment of the global automobile industry, fundamentally altering global copper demand patterns.
Demand Growth in Near-Perfect Lockstep
Between 2015 and 2025:
- Global EV sales rose from about 0.55 million units to nearly 20 million units.
- Associated copper consumption increased from roughly 27,500 tonnes to over 1.28 million tonnes.
Elasticity estimates show that:
- Copper demand growth has mostly exceeded EV adoption growth.
- In 2019, elasticity peaked at 1.76, driven by larger battery packs, higher power electronics usage, and rapid charging infrastructure expansion.
Although efficiency gains may reduce elasticity to around 0.90 by 2025, absolute copper demand will continue to rise sharply due to the sheer scale of EV deployment.
A Structural Global Copper Deficit
While demand surges, global copper supply is plateauing.
Key constraints include:
- Declining ore grades at existing mines,
- Decade-long development cycles for new mines,
- Environmental opposition in major producing regions such as Chile, Peru and the United States,
- Chronic underinvestment in mining over the past two decades.
In 2024, global supply marginally exceeded demand, but by 2026:
- Demand is projected to reach 30 million tonnes,
- Supply is expected to stagnate at around 28 million tonnes.
The deficit is projected to widen to:
- 4.5 million tonnes by 2028,
- Nearly 8 million tonnes by 2030, equivalent to the output of the world’s ten largest copper mines combined.
Cost, Infrastructure and Climate Risks
Persistent copper shortages could:
- Increase EV production costs,
- Delay charging infrastructure rollout,
- Strain decarbonisation timelines.
As electrification accelerates across transport, industry and power systems, copper scarcity risks becoming the single largest bottleneck in the energy transition unless supply-side solutions scale rapidly.
A Reshaping of Global Market Dynamics
EV-driven copper demand is also reshaping geopolitical and market power balances.
- China has emerged as the dominant force, accounting for nearly 60% of global EV-based copper consumption by 2025.
- China also controls over 70% of global battery cell production, giving it deep leverage across integrated supply chains.
- By contrast:
- The EU’s EV-related copper demand is projected at around 210,000 tonnes by 2025,
- The U.S. at 1.14 million tonnes,
- India remains modest at roughly 7,200 tonnes.
This asymmetry gives China structural advantages in pricing power, long-term contracts, and access to copper-rich regions.
Implications for India and the Energy Transition
As copper becomes central to electrification:
- Securing reliable access to copper is no longer an industrial issue alone, but a strategic priority.
- The EV revolution is reshaping not just transport systems but the global metals economy.
India’s energy transition ambitions will increasingly depend on:
- Diversified mineral sourcing,
- Recycling and urban mining,
- Technological innovation to reduce copper intensity where possible.
Way Forward
The editorial underscores the need for bold action:
- Accelerating copper recycling and recovery,
- Investing in exploration and faster mine development,
- Promoting material efficiency and substitution research,
- Integrating critical minerals strategy with climate and industrial policy.
Without coordinated action across mining, recycling and technology, electrification targets risk being dictated by geological constraints rather than policy ambition.
Conclusion
The EV boom has exposed copper as the unsung artery of global electrification. As demand threatens to outpace supply in unprecedented ways, the success of the energy transition will hinge on how effectively countries respond to this looming mineral crunch.
If copper supply, recycling and innovation are not scaled up rapidly, the pace of electrification will be set not by climate goals, but by the limits of the earth itself.