The Hindu Editorial Analysis
09 February 2026
Myanmar’s military-scripted polls, India’s strategic bind
(Source – The Hindu, International Edition, Page no.-10 )
Topic: GS Paper – GS 2 & GS 3 : GS 3: Internal Security, Border Management, Refugees, Transnational Crime, GS 2: International Relations, Neighbourhood Policy, Democracy, ASEAN
Context
Five years after the February 2021 military coup, Myanmar’s junta has attempted to manufacture political legitimacy through tightly controlled elections held between late December 2025 and January 2026. With voting allowed in only a fraction of townships, opposition parties dissolved, leaders jailed and violence ongoing, the elections have neither resolved Myanmar’s civil war nor restored stability. For India, which shares a long border and strategic interests with Myanmar, these developments sharpen a long-standing dilemma: how to balance democratic principles with security and connectivity imperatives.
Military-scripted elections and legitimacy crisis
The elections were conducted under extreme constraints. Polling was limited to urban areas and just 265 of Myanmar’s 330 townships, with most rural and border regions under resistance control. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) predictably claimed victory amid low participation.
The sharp fall in turnout compared to previous elections reflects not voter apathy but widespread rejection of a militarised political process. The credibility deficit was compounded by the junta-appointed election commission dissolving major opposition parties and imprisoning senior leaders, effectively eliminating meaningful political competition.
Elections amidst war
Myanmar’s political process unfolded against the backdrop of an intense civil conflict. Since the coup, thousands have been killed, tens of thousands arrested, and over a hundred thousand homes destroyed. Armed resistance groups, including the People’s Defence Forces and ethnic armed organisations, control large territories and continue to challenge the military’s authority.
Far from stabilising the country, the elections appear to have hardened resistance and signalled prolonged conflict, reducing prospects for post-election normalisation.
India’s calibrated response
For India, Myanmar is both a strategic neighbour and a gateway to Southeast Asia under the Act East Policy. New Delhi has consistently reiterated support for Myanmar’s democratic transition while avoiding overt legitimisation of the junta.
Official statements have emphasised that any electoral process must be free, fair and inclusive, involving all political stakeholders. Simultaneously, India has carefully limited the political symbolism of engagement, maintaining distance from the electoral exercise while keeping diplomatic channels open.
Engagement without endorsement
High-level engagement has continued alongside calibrated rhetoric. Interactions on multilateral sidelines and bilateral platforms signal India’s intent to safeguard its interests without conferring political endorsement.
Humanitarian diplomacy has remained a key pillar. India has provided medical aid, disaster relief and emergency assistance, including the establishment of a temporary field hospital after the March 2025 earthquake. This approach allows continued engagement while avoiding formal recognition of the regime’s political claims.
Implications for India’s internal security
Myanmar’s instability has direct spillover effects on India’s northeast. Refugee inflows into Mizoram and Manipur have increased, with the absence of a comprehensive national refugee policy placing pressure on State governments.
Prolonged instability also affects border management, with weakened state authority facilitating narcotics trafficking, human trafficking and cyber crime networks. The expansion of cyber scam centres and trafficking rings in border conflict zones has already led to the rescue of thousands of Indians, highlighting emerging non-traditional security threats.
Strategic projects under strain
Key connectivity projects, including the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, continue to face delays due to insecurity in conflict-affected regions. The junta’s claims of post-election normalisation are unlikely to translate into improved ground conditions, forcing India to reassess timelines, risk exposure and engagement strategies.
The regional and diplomatic context
With ASEAN and several regional groupings refusing to recognise the election outcomes, India’s balanced approach gains significance. Maintaining limited engagement with the regime while sustaining contacts with local and ethnic actors offers strategic flexibility in a fractured political landscape.
The elections have not marked a turning point; instead, they reinforce the reality that Myanmar’s crisis will be prolonged, fragmented and resistant to quick diplomatic solutions.
Conclusion
Myanmar’s military-scripted elections underscore the limits of procedural legitimacy in the absence of peace, inclusion and political consensus. For India, the challenge lies in managing relations with a fractured neighbour by balancing democratic principles with pragmatic security and connectivity concerns.
New Delhi’s calibrated diplomacy — engagement without endorsement, humanitarian outreach without political validation — reflects this strategic tightrope. As instability persists, India’s policy will need greater coherence on refugees, border security and regional coordination, recognising that neither principle nor pragmatism alone offers an easy exit from Myanmar’s enduring crisis.