The Hindu Editorial Analysis
14 November 2025
Donald Trump Shakes Up the Global Nuclear Order
(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 8)
Topic : GS Paper II: International Relations – Global Security Architecture | GS Paper III: Internal Security – Nuclear Technology and Non-Proliferation
Context
On October 30, 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to resume nuclear testing, claiming parity with Russia and China. If implemented, this move could destabilize the delicate balance of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, particularly the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Background: The Changing Nuclear Landscape
- The global nuclear arsenal has declined from 65,000 warheads in the 1970s to around 12,500 today, but modernization continues.
- Five nuclear powers (U.S., Russia, China, France, U.K.) remain permanent UNSC members, but others like India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea expanded their arsenals outside the NPT framework.
- Despite moratoria on testing since the 1990s, technological advances in hypersonic, autonomous, and low-yield weapons are reshaping the global order.
Trump’s Announcement and Its Implications
- Trump directed the U.S. Department of Energy and Defense to prepare for “testing U.S. nuclear weapons on an equal basis.”
- This revives Cold War era competition and could trigger a new nuclear arms race and deteriorate strategic stability.
- Russia’s recent withdrawal from CTBT ratification and China’s modernization program further raise tensions.
Why the CTBT Is at Risk
- No Universal Ratification: Although adopted in 1996, the CTBT has not entered into force because key states (U.S., China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran, Egypt, Israel) have not ratified it.
- Strategic Ambiguity: Countries conduct subcritical tests and computer simulations that evade the treaty’s definition of a nuclear test.
- Erosion of Norms: Trump’s announcement reverses decades of voluntary moratoria and undermines the moral authority of non-testing states.
Potential Consequences for Global Security
- New Arms Race: Russia and China are likely to respond with their own tests, pressuring India and Pakistan to follow.
- Erosion of NPT Legitimacy: The return to testing could trigger widespread disillusionment with the NPT regime, encouraging weaponization among non-nuclear states.
- Technological Spiral: U.S. research into dual-use systems (hypersonic missiles, AI autonomous systems, low-yield warheads) may normalize new forms of nuclear warfighting.
India’s Stake
- India, which maintains a “no first use” policy and has observed a testing moratorium since 1998, could face strategic pressures to modernize its arsenal.
- A breakdown of the CTBT consensus may intensify security competition in Asia, impacting India’s deterrence posture against China and Pakistan.
Way Forward
- Revive Diplomacy: Re-energize talks under the Conference on Disarmament and UN Security Council to restore faith in arms-control agreements.
- Strengthen Verification: Enhance global monitoring through the International Monitoring System (IMS) and data-sharing mechanisms.
- India’s Role: Champion responsible nuclear restraint and advocate a new Global No-First-Use Pledge to revitalize multilateral trust.
Conclusion
Trump’s decision to resume testing may mark the most serious setback to nuclear arms control since the Cold War. It risks undoing decades of global cooperation that reduced nuclear arsenals and norms against testing.
“If deterrence is redefined as provocation, the world may soon find itself back in the shadow of a nuclear winter.”