The Hindu Editorial Analysis
26 September 2025
The Saudi-Pakistan deal upends India’s strategic thought
(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 8)
Topic : GS 2: India and its neighborhood- relations
Context
While often understated, the Riyadh-Islamabad agreement has far-reaching geopolitical consequences.
Introduction
The announcement of a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has, predictably, unsettled New Delhi. Of particular concern is the clause stating that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” which has sparked both apprehension and questions about the future of India-Saudi relations.
India’s Diplomatic Push Faces Challenges Amid Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact
- Following the April 2025 terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which triggered the largest India-Pakistan military exchange since 1971, India launched a global diplomatic effort to isolate Pakistan.
- Despite these efforts, attempts to internationally quarantine Pakistan have fallen short, with the Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Defence deal serving as a significant diplomatic win for Islamabad.
- In May, Operation Sindoor was launched to target terrorist camps inside Pakistan, coinciding with Saudi and Iranian diplomats visiting New Delhi as tensions escalated across the border.
- During this period, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on an official visit to Riyadh, rushed back to Indiafollowing the terror attack.
- Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Adel al-Jubeir, soon visited India to meet External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.
- Al-Jubeir’s meeting at the Prime Minister’s Office attracted attention; although details remained undisclosed, it likely reflected Riyadh’s efforts to ease escalating India-Pakistan tensions.
Linked to geopolitical changes
- Beyond South Asia, these developments highlight a wider geopolitical fracas in West Asia following the Hamas terror attack on Israel in October 2023, which has reshaped regional strategic calculations.
- By September 2025, the Riyadh-Islamabad agreement has been downplayed publicly but carries significant geopolitical reverberations.
- India’s interests remain peripheral for Riyadh, while for Pakistan, the deal serves dual purposes: strengthening ties with the Kingdom and challenging New Delhi’s security concerns.
- The pact marks a return to normalcy after strained Saudi-Pakistan relations; in 2015, the Nawaz Sharif government refused to send troops to join Saudi operations against Houthi forces in Yemen.
- Saudi Arabia has long valued the Pakistani military for its extensive combat experience, primarily against India, to bolster its domestic and regional security.
- With the US increasingly seen as an unreliable partner, Riyadh is returning to traditional alliances in the region.
- For Islamabad, its nuclear capability is again delivering strategic dividends, though more by opportunity than design, demonstrating influence from Washington to Riyadh.
- Reports suggest the deal had been in the works for about three years, and India’s Ministry of External Affairs had been aware of discussions.
- Pakistan, as the only Islamic nuclear-armed country, has been considered a potential source for Riyadh’s nuclear requirements.
- The “12-day war” between Israel and Iran, with missile exchanges involving Qatar, has heightened regional stakes, increasing the strategic relevance of the pact.
The fundamentals are solid
- The Saudi-Pakistan agreement reflects broader changes in the international order, beyond immediate regional concerns.
- There is a misconception about India’s influence in West Asia, assuming it could create an institutional wedge between Islamabad and Arab states.
- Bilateral ties between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are deeply rooted in Islam, ideology, and theological principles, particularly centered around Sunnism, making these relationships fundamentally resilient.
- Riyadh is pursuing strategic autonomy, multipolarity, and multialignment, aligning with stated foreign policy objectives.
- These approaches mirror India’s aspirational foreign policy goals to emerge as a major global power, but often result in major partners taking positions contrary to Indian strategic interests.
The message for India
- The Saudi-Pakistan formalisation highlights challenges related to the ‘Islamic bomb’, a term coined by the Pakistani press in the early 1980s.
- While the immediate challenge may not be immense, it signals shifts in the global geopolitical chessboard.
- For India, it underscores a disconnect between its culturally risk-averse strategic thinking and the fast-changing international realities.
- The slow pace of strategic adaptation risks leaving India behind in regional and global power dynamics.
- Indian leadership must embrace the risks that come with both the exercise and mobilisation of power.
- Continuing a fence-sitting approach or clinging to an idealistic ‘chief pacifist’ role could limit India’s strategic options and reduce its traction on the global stage.
Conclusion
The world is undergoing a profound reshaping and will not pause for what India perceives as “its time.” The Saudi-Pakistan pact reflects Islamabad—and particularly the Pakistan Army—leveraging disruptions and gaps in the global and Western order to its advantage. Another chance to influence the rules of international engagement may not come again this century. It is therefore imperative that India’s strategic calculations are accurate and that it acts with decisive resolve.