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Topic: GS2- International Relations

The Trump administration’s executive actions on immigration, trade, and AI will impact India’s workforce, economy, and diplomatic ties, necessitating strategic adjustments in India’s policies.

  • Donald Trump signed multiple executive orders (EOs) immediately after taking office, including revocation orders of Biden-era policies and exit orders from multilateral agreements.
  • The White House described these actions as “100s of Executive actions in the first 100 hours to kick off America’s Golden Age.”
  • India initially received positive signals, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar attending Trump’s inauguration and holding meetings with U.S. officials.
  • However, economic and trade policies under the Trump administration could pose significant challenges for India.
  • Trump’s policies focus on border security, stopping illegal migration, and strict visa screening.
  • The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency has increased raids and arrests, affecting undocumented Indian migrants.
  • Over 7.25 lakh Indians are undocumented in the U.S., and 18,000 Indians are in detention for deportation.
  • The economic impact of deportations includes:
    • Loss of remittances: If deportations increase, India will face economic losses and rising unemployment.
    • Trade pressure: Trump may use tariffs to force India to accept deported migrants, as seen with Colombia.
    • Tighter visa rules: Restrictions on H-1B visa holders and work permits for spouses will reduce opportunities for Indian professionals.
  • Trump’s “America First Trade Policy” will likely bring more tariff-based pressures on trade partners, including India.
  • In his first term, Trump withdrew India’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status and stopped oil imports from Iran and Venezuela.
  • India may face tougher trade negotiations as Trump prioritizes U.S. economic interests.
  • The evolving U.S.-China relationship under Trump adds uncertainty, as Trump’s tariff threats to China are softer than expected.
  • Trump exited organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and OECD Global Tax Deal and rolled back commitments on climate change and green energy.
  • These actions could reduce U.S. funding and support for India’s energy transition and development projects.
  • Trump’s administration prioritizes AI investments, with a $500 billion Stargate AI Infrastructure project launched.
  • AI advancements aim to keep the U.S. ahead in technology and reduce reliance on foreign tech workers.
  • AI job replacement risks:
    • Tech leaders like Google’s Sundar Pichai say over 25% of new code is AI-generated.
    • Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg predicts AI will replace mid-level engineers.
    • These changes may reduce demand for Indian tech professionals seeking U.S. jobs.
  • India must rethink its education and skilling policies to absorb impacted STEM graduates.
  • New Delhi must factor in Trump’s trade, tech, and immigration policies while engaging diplomatically with the U.S.
  • India’s reliance on the IT-BPM sector, which contributes 55% of GDP and 40% of exports, means it must adapt to global shifts in AI and digital industries.
  • The Trump administration’s policies on immigration, trade, and AI will significantly impact India’s economy and workforce.
  • India must proactively adjust its diplomatic and economic strategies to navigate these changes effectively.

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